IPO's Iraq News Analysis (December 14)

By Ali Latif
December 14 , 2004

United Shia List

An alliance of the major Shia political parties, groupings and figures has submitted its list of candidates for the upcoming January elections. The list of 228 names formed with the blessing of Sistani, encompasses SCIRI, Dawa, representatives of Muqtada Al-Sadr, other Shia parties, along with various Shia independents

The inclusion of secularists such as Chalabi, prominent Sunnis such as the head of the influential Shammar tribe, Sheikh Fawaz al-Jarba, as well as Kurdish, Turkoman, Christian and Yazidi candidates indicates a desire on the part of the Shia Islamic parties to appeal to a wide spectrum of voters, as well as their acknowledgement of Iraq's diverse ethnic and religious makeup.
Seen as the list which will attract the majority of votes, its announcement is a major blow to Iran's interests in the upcoming elections. Sistani is an outspoken critic of the Rule of the Jurist (wilayat-al-faqih), the basis of Iran's political system, and his public backing of this list is seen as a death knell to any concerns of an Iranian-style theocracy taking root in Iraq. Sistani's success in uniting the major Shia Islamic currents in Iraq is also a personal blow to the Iranian leader, Khamenei, who has attempted to portray himself as the spiritual leader of the Shia world.

Lessons from Fallujah

Information gathered on the insurgency from the recent operation in Fallujah has further strengthened claims that it is of a largely Baathist character. The previous perception of the insurgency being dominated by foreign, Wahabi extremists has given way to the acceptance that members of the former Baath security apparatus or Mukhabarat, using pre-existing Baath networks, are responsible for most of the violence since the end of the war. Furthermore, attention is now being focused on a former top-ranking Baath official, Seb'awi Ibrahim Al-Hasan, thought to be in Syria, and now believed to be funding and orchestrating attacks inside Iraq. While Syria is still paying lip service to preventing cross border support to the insurgency, exiled Baathists continue to operate inside the country with impunity.

Additional US Troops

The US decision to send 12,000 additional troops to Iraq in preparation for the January elections reflects a clear failure on the coalition's part in rebuilding Iraq's army and security forces. This failure can be attributed to the flawed approach taken by the Iraqi government and US coalition in appointing ex-Baathist officers to the army and police. A series of top-ranking security staff have already been sacked after it emerged that they were actually helping the insurgency and even the reliability of recruits, in this respect, has been called into question following the recent brief capitulation of Mosul to insurgents. A secure and stable Iraq with strong, reliable security forces will only be achieved if the coalition and the present Iraqi government decide to drop their short-sighted strategy of appointing ex-Baathists and focus on providing appropriately vetted recruits the necessary training and support that they require.

News Analysis brought to you by the Iraqi Prospect Organisation - http://www.iprospect.org.uk
The Iraqi Prospect Organisation is a network of young Iraqi men and women promoting democratic values in Iraq.

browse our complete news archive?