Democratic Stirrings in the Arab World?

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By Rami G. Khouri
December 16, 2004

The debate on the need to reform and modernize the political, economic and social systems of the Arab world has become something of a new growth sector. It includes regular meetings and conferences, occasional declarations, intermittent new initiatives and a regular flow of threats and pleas from usually sincere friends abroad. The talk of reforming Arab governance and economic systems is always fascinating and informative, but the corresponding action on the ground is also always very limited.

Two events in very different parts of the Arab world this week offer a fascinating glimpse into the underlying dynamics of this matter, and should be pondered seriously by those who follow the Arab reform debate. One event took place in Cairo last Sunday, where around 1,000 demonstrators gathered in the Egyptian capital to peacefully protest President Hosni Mubarak's plans to run for a fifth consecutive term as president. He has been in power for nearly 24 years in a closed political system dominated by the National Democratic Party to the effective exclusion of any other voice in governance beyond symbolic representation in a feeble parliament.

The demonstrators from Islamist, liberal and nationalist parties held up banners that read, "Enough. No more extensions, no hereditary succession," expressing opposition to the likely possibility of Mubarak's son Gamal taking over as president after him. The demonstration was significant because it was the first time that Egyptians explicitly opposed the president in public in this manner, and we are likely to see more of this in the coming months. In the Arab world, where governance authority is closely protected and preserved over decades and generations by efficient patronage and security systems, it is rare to see such explicit and personal political opposition to incumbent leaders.

The protest in Egypt is a powerful symbol of how ordinary people and political activists have become so fed up with their perpetual rulers that they have taken to the streets - even in small, symbolic numbers - to express their sentiments. This demonstration is fascinating and significant because it represents one of the few examples of ordinary Arabs demanding reform in a key category of their political life: term limits on executive leaderships.

This sort of behavior in Egypt may well spread to other Arab lands, and if so it could represent an important new turn in modern Arab politics. Most talk of reform in the Arab world has come from three sources that have been unable to move beyond the realm of talk: civil society and political activists, government officials and leaders, and foreign powers. For citizens to take to the street to express their demands for political reform is a novel political development that should be watched closely.

The second fascinating political development in the expanding Arab reform industry this week was the blunt statement by the United Arab Emirates defense minister and Dubai crown prince, Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al-Maktoum, who hosts a three-day gathering in Dubai called the Arab Strategy Forum. In his comments opening the meeting Monday, he spoke directly to his "fellow Arab leaders," and warned them that if they did not change, they would be changed. He said: "If you do not initiate radical reforms that restore respect for public duty and uphold principles of transparency, justice and accountability, then your people will resent you and history will judge you harshly." The very explicit warning was that lousy leaders would be changed, presumably by their own people, but, in view of recent American military moves in Afghanistan and Iraq, perhaps also by well-armed and interventionist foreign powers.

This week represents an intriguing milestone of sorts in the very slow process of promoting or achieving Arab reform. Within less than 24 hours, we have witnessed in the oldest and newest parts of the Arab world - Cairo and Dubai - two very different signs of the urgent need for change. These expressions of discontent are signs of pressure building on established leaderships. They are especially noteworthy because they emanate simultaneously from the bottom and the top of Arab political culture - from the streets of Cairo and the ruling emiri palaces of the Gulf.

Dubai and its leadership offer the counterpoint to Cairo and its ancient political managers, custodians of an ancient historical legacy along the banks of the Nile that resists modernization and power sharing. Dubai and the U.A.E. have not undergone a formal political or economic reform process as such, because they are new entities, achieving independent statehood just a decade before Hosni Mubarak took office as president. They have built a modern economy from scratch, aided by considerable oil income, but in the past decade fuelled more by their human assets and business and marketing creativity.

Dubai and the U.A.E. offer a new model of Arab development, in which the public and private sectors work closely together to promote national development and provide their citizens with opportunities for personal growth and economic well-being. These are apolitical societies, though, focusing on promoting business development and meeting the basic needs of their citizens, with no formal, public political dynamics that examine, for example, foreign policy, security, or budgetary decision-making in any appreciable manner. To date, the citizens of the U.A.E. have accepted and appreciated this model of nation-building, and their country is a magnet that attracts workers, entrepreneurs and investments from many Arab and foreign quarters.

It is a good sign that the Dubai leadership here would now speak out in such forceful and explicitly political terms about the lack of accountability among Arab leaders, at the same time that some Egyptians are saying the same things through peaceful street demonstrations. It is not clear where these twin dynamics may lead, but they are certainly worth watching in the months ahead.

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